The 10 full sized adults, 2 approximately 10 year old children, and 2 babies.
8 persons in the back seat, 6 in the front.
The experience wasn't fun, but it did allow for a very proud moment. One of the Ugandans in the car protested when the driver pulled over for more passengers and got out of the car. The experience made me consider how the 'less than free' market is going to solve this problem. So as I usually do, I turned to math.
When I get onto a car that is overloaded to that degree I do so at a lesser price than I would otherwise. If I use myself as a model for two different scenarios then the math shakes out like this:
Overloaded (typical):
9 People @ 3000 shillings each.
Assume 30 MPG or 12.75 km/L
@ 3600 UGX/L and 35 km fuel cost = 9822 approx = 10,000 UGX
Bribes / Bypass Costs = 2000 UGX - 10,000 UGX
With No Maintenance Profit = 7,000 - 15,000 UGX - about 3 to 6 USD
Driver / Owner Must Both Be Paid
Not Overloaded
5 Paying Customers @ 4000 shillings each
Same Assumptions
No Bribes / Bypass Required
With No Maintenance Profit = 10,000 UGX
The incredible thing is how close the figures are to one another. A little less police corruption (or at least a demand of a slightly higher bribe) would skew market conditions in favor of a maximum of 6 persons in a compact car.
Two problems exist. With few exceptions Ugandans don't assign a higher value for a comfortable / safe ride than they do a ridiculous ride. The second problem is the drivers don't understand the math. They don't think about revenue and cost, they think about location. We once negotiated for a 3 hour drive to only sit 3 per seat for 2000 shillings extra, paying 10,000 instead of 8,000. The driver was delighted. But the math shows he got ripped off. At 4 persons on the seat he would have collected 32,000 for the bench, instead he collected 30,000. That might have been partially compensated by difference in fuel economy but in a vehicle with potentially 20 passengers the marginal cost of fuel is relatively low.
No comments:
Post a Comment